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An Evenhanded Analysis of Trump"s Economic Policies

Expect offsetting impacts of deregulation, lower tax rates, and tariffs-but also great uncertainty.

 

Thursday, December 19, 2024  8 min read

By: Mickey D. Levy

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An Evenhanded Analysis of Trump"s Economic Policies

By: Mickey D. Levy

Assessments of the impacts of President-elect Trump"s economic policies are just as polarized as the political arguments of the recent campaign. Trump"s detractors provide deeply negative economic estimates of his policy statements on tariffs and immigration. The Trump camp sees only clear skies, stronger economic growth, and buoyed prosperity.

Drawing on the history of Trump"s first term, an evenhanded assessment of the four pillars of Trump"s current economic platform-higher tariffs and tough anti-China policies; extending the 2017 tax cuts; deregulation and increasing government efficiency; and deporting immigrants-suggests that there will be offsetting pluses and minuses.  The net economic impacts are most likely somewhere in between the most pessimistic prognostications and the rosy scenario envisioned by the Trump team. There are many key uncertainties and risks.